BOND April 2020
1
April 17, 2020
We are in an environment the likes of which we have not experienced before…
In this informal note, we have compiled observable trends that help form our views of the present and should provide insights into the future.
Relevant reference points from Internet Trends plus USA, Inc. can be found at bondcap.com.
Mary, Noah, Mood, Juliet, Daegwon, Paul & the BOND team
Our New World (Outline)
1) Covid-19 = Shock + Aftershocks
2) Viruses + Microbes = Consistent + Periodic Agents of Disaster
3) Creative Innovators (Globally + Together) Will Rise Above the Virus
4) Rapid Changes Drive Growth in Both Directions
Scientists / Engineers / Domain Experts Get Back More Seats at The Tables
Work-Life Re-Balanced
Digital Transformation Accelerating
Rise of On-Demand Services as Economic Growth Driver Continues (for Consumers + Workers)
Governments Role in Stabilizing / Stimulating Economy (& Jobs) Must Be Enabled by Modern
Technologies
2020 = Step-Function Year for Technology + Healthcare?
Traditional Sports = Post Covid-19 Evolution Provides Real-Time Engagement Clues for Other
Businesses
5) The World Just Doesnt End That Often = We Will Get Through This But Life Will Be Different
https://www.bondcap.com/#archive
http://bondcap.com/report/usa/
http://www.bondcap.com/
2
Our New World
1) Covid-19 = Shock + Aftershocks
Earthquakes are like high-speed zippers that rip open the earth they can run 138 miles in a minute1 as the San
Francisco Earthquake did in 1906. The big ones transform the way people live.
The shock from Covid-19s high-speed spread / impact has similarities as of 4/16/20, in the 94 days since the first known cases outside of China were reported, 2.1MM people have tested positive globally and 145K have died. 93% of the worlds 193 countries have reported cases, and governments only choice has been to impose unprecedented social control policies with the hope of flattening the curve.
The top 20 countries by GDP have all implemented some form of social distancing and/or quarantine in aggregate, this represents 80% of global GDP and a large portion of the population. Covid-19 has upended our modern lives in ways were just starting to understand.
With an abrupt shock, many of us other than those who are infected or serving those in need of care have shifted from navigating the rat race to moving at a relative snails pace. We are living in a hunkered down world that in many ways seems more attuned to life from another era but in 24×7 streaming global color.
In the face of an enemy on our shores, America has stepped up. Neighbors are looking out for each other. Philanthropic initiatives (often local) are rolling out to provide stopgap help to those in need until more sustainable solutions are optimized. And, over 18MM2 healthcare workers are tirelessly and heroically serving on our front lines.
In the aftershock, the economy has also ground to a halt, and job losses are rising rapidly. At current course and speed, in a few months unemployment could reach levels not seen since the Great Depression almost a century ago. Nearly one in four American workers are employed in the most affected face-to-face jobs like food service, hospitality, retail and other services3. As of one month ago, one in five Americans had already lost working hours or jobs4. Seventy-three percent of Americans have indicated their household income has been reduced5.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1/23 1/30 2/6 2/13 2/20 2/27 3/5 3/12 3/19 3/26 4/2 4/9
N u
m b
e r
o f
C o
u n
tr ie
s
Week (Starting 1/23, Week of China’s Lockdown)
Number of Countries With Confirmed Community Cases
Covid-19 = Rapid Globalization
Source: Internal analysis as of 4/13/20, John Hopkins University, Worldometer
N = 1 1 2 5 5 12 27 47 94 123 149 175
1 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) The Northern California Earthquake, 4/18/1906. 8,300 miles per hour illustratively converted to miles per minute. 2 CDC. 3 Pew Research 3/27/20. 4 NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll on 3/17/20. 5 FT-Peterson poll, 3/24/20 3/27/20.
Note: Throughout we use Covid-19 to refer to both the disease, and the virus (SARS-CoV-2) that causes the disease.
3
Comparing U.S. unemployment and the stock market of the past 43 trading days with September 1929 December 1936 (the Great Depression), one finds terrifyingly similar trends in stock market movements while todays unemployment levels are spiking at a materially faster clip. Similar shocks have taken place in other advanced economies, amplifying the knock-on effects to trade that may worsen the global downturn.
Recent government-imposed containment actions have necessitated government-funded lending / liquidity / stimulus
programs at unprecedented speed, scope, scale and complexity. In its effort to stabilize and stimulate the weakening
economy, the U.S. government has committed over $2 trillion in aid to consumers and the economy while the Federal
Reserve has committed up to $2.3 trillion to expand an existing corporate lending program for small and medium-sized
businesses along with the purchase of municipal bonds. These numbers will likely continue to rise.
Source: St. Louis FRED, BLS, CBO (including Q2:20E unemployment projection from 4/2/20), CapitalIQ as of 4/14/20.
Unemployment vs. Stock Market Trends = 2020 (2/12 Current) vs. 1929 1936
U S
A U
n e
m p
lo y m
e n t R
a te
( %
)
D o
w J
o n
e s I n
d u
s tr
ia l A
v e
ra g e
I n
d e
x e
d R
e tu
rn s
4.4%
(3/20)
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
9/1/29 9/1/30 9/1/31 9/1/32 9/1/33 9/1/34 9/1/35 9/1/36
USA Unemployment Rate vs. Dow Jones Industrial Average (Indexed)
DJIA Returns (Peak 9/29 Indexed) DJIA Returns (Peak 2/12/20 Indexed)
Unemployment Rate (1929 – 1936) Umployment Rate 2020
DJIA Returns (Peak 9/3/1929 Indexed)
DJIA Returns (Peak 2/12/2020 Indexed)
Unemployment Rate (1929 – 1936)
Unemployment Rate (2020)
>10%
(Q2:20E)
USA CARES Act (2020) = Largest & Fastest Stimulus Package Ever
Source: St. Louis FRED. 2009 2020 assumes 1.77% annual inflation. 1933 2020 assumes 3.52% annual inflation based on CPI.
Historical USA Stimulus Bills ($B) Nominal Dollars
Historical USA Stimulus Bills ($B) Inflation Adjusted Dollars
$2,000
$1,500
$42
10%
20%
30%
40%
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
2020 CARES Act
(2020)
2008 Recovery
Act
New Deal (1933 – 1940)
$2,000 $1,788
$826
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
2020 CARES Act (2020)
2008 Recovery Act
New Deal (1933 – 1940)
Stimulus Dollars ($B) % of GDP
S ti
m u
lu s
D o
ll a
rs (
$ B
)
S ti
m u
lu s
D o
ll a
rs (
$ B
)
% G
D P
CARES Act
(2020)
Recovery Act
& TARP
(2009)
New Deal
(1933 – 1940) CARES Act
(2020)
Recovery Act
& TARP
(2009)
New Deal
(1933 – 1940)
Months to Implement 1st
Stimulus Package From
Stock Market Peak
1 10 42
4
We have a hydra-like crisis health / economic / psychological that occurred at a time when many things were humming (economic growth / consumer spending / employment / wages ) but there werent huge margins for error.
For context, the $4.3 trillion in government monetary and fiscal responses is the equivalent of 124% of the American governments revenue in 2019 and 20% of GDP. Simplistically, it would take total debt / GDP level to 127% vs. 107% in 2019. The speck of relative good news here is that interest rates are near record low levels so the near-term annual cost of the new debt will be relatively low.
Personal Saving Rate = Rising But 8% vs. 12% Fifty Years Ago Debt-to-Annual-Income Ratio = 23% vs. 15%
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED Database, USA Federal Reserve Bank. *Consumer debt-to-annual-income ratio = outstanding credit extended to individuals for household, family & other personal expenditures, excluding loans secured by real estate vs. average annual personal income. Personal saving rate = percentage of
disposable personal income (DPI), frequently referred to as the personal saving rate. (i.e. the annual share of disposable income dedicated to saving)
Personal Saving Rate & Debt-to-Annual-Income* Ratio
0%
15%
30%
1969 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019
Personal Saving Rate
Debt-to-Annual-Income* Ratio
R a ti o
, U
S A
USA Public Debt / GDP Level = 8th Highest vs. Major Economies (2018)
Source: IMF 2018 Estimate, World Bank GDP data.
Government Debt
Country % of GDP 2018 ($B) 1) Japan 236% $4,971
2) Sudan 186 41
3) Greece 185 218
4) Italy 135 2,084
5) Portugal 122 241
6) Singapore 110 364
7) Mozambique 107 15
8) USA 106 20,544
9) Cyprus 101 25
10) Belgium 100 543
11) France 98 2,778
12) Spain 98 1,419
13) Egypt 93 251
14) Congo 90 11
15) Canada 90 1,713
Government Debt
Country % of GDP 2018 ($B) 16) Angola 89% $106
17) Brazil 87 1,869
18) Argentina 86 520
19) UK 86 2,855
20) Sri Lanka 84 89
21) Croatia 75 61
22) Zambia 75 27
23) Austria 74 455
24) Pakistan 72 315
25) Slovenia 70 54
26) Hungary 70 158
27) India 69 2,719
28) Morocco 65 118
29) Ireland 64 382
30) Yemen 63 27
USA Income Statement = Expenses > Revenue for Years -19% Average Net Margin Over 30 Years
USA Income Statement
Source: Congressional Budget Office, White House Office of Management and Budget. *Individual & corporate income taxes include capital gains taxes. Note: USA federal fiscal year ends in September. Non-defense discretionary includes federal
spending on education, infrastructure, law enforcement, judiciary functions.
F1989 F1994 F1999 F2004 F2009 F2014 F2019 Comments
Revenue ($B) $991 $1,259 $1,827 $1,880 $2,105 $3,021 $3,463 Y/Y Growth 9% 9% 6% 5% (17%) 9% 4% +5% Y/Y average over 25 years
Individual Income Taxes* $446 $543 $879 $809 $915 $1,395 $1,718 Largest driver of revenue
% of Revenue 45% 43% 48% 43% 43% 46% 50%
Social Insurance Taxes $359 $461 $612 $733 $891 $1,023 $1,243 Social Security & Medicare payroll tax
% of Revenue 36% 37% 33% 39% 42% 34% 36%
Corporate Income Taxes* $103 $140 $185 $189 $138 $321 $230 Fluctuates with economic conditions
% of Revenue 10% 11% 10% 10% 7% 11% 7%
Other $83 $114 $151 $148 $161 $283 $272 Estate & gift taxes, duties / fees
% of Revenue 8% 9% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8%
Expense ($B) $1,144 $1,462 $1,702 $2,293 $3,518 $3,506 $4,448
Y/Y Growth 7% 4% 3% 6% 18% 1% 8%
Entitlement / Mandatory $486 $717 $900 $1,238 $2,093 $2,098 $2,735 Risen owing to rising healthcare costs +
% of Expense 42% 49% 53% 54% 60% 60% 61% aging population
Non-Defense Discretionary $208 $255 $312 $463 $846 $573 $853 Education / law enforcement /
% of Expense 18% 17% 18% 20% 24% 16% 19% transportation / general government
Defense $304 $282 $275 $456 $661 $603 $686 2009 increase driven by War on Terror
% of Expense 27% 19% 16% 20% 19% 17% 15%
Net Interest on Public Debt $169 $203 $230 $160 $187 $229 $375 Recent benefit of historic low interest
% of Expense 15% 14% 14% 7% 5% 7% 8%
Surplus / Deficit ($B) ($153) ($203) $126 ($413) ($1,413) ($485) ($985) -19% average net margin, 1989-2019
Net Margin (%) (15%) (16%) 7% (22%) (67%) (16%) (28%)
5
These are all big numbers. The biggest / fastest such intervention ever from Washington DC by a long shot. For
better or worse, given the circumstances, the boosters or bazookas (a term used by Hank Paulson, U.S. Treasury
Secretary, during the financial crisis in 2008) are needed for the attempt to stabilize and restart our rapidly
deteriorating economy.
These large numbers may not be large enough after all, one persons lost revenue is also another persons lost
revenue and so on and so on a problematic cascade on multiple dimensions that is still in its early stages.
We are all participating in an unproven test for fiscal and monetary policy of a magnitude we have not experienced
before. Can a rapid response of this scale using lots of capital stabilize rapidly declining business trends and help them
resume growth in short order? The money is one thing; human confidence is another. We will know soon enough we
suspect business trends in Q3 will be better than Q2 but that will be a low bar
Key challenges of this multi-sided situation include:
1) Understanding when people can safely leave their homes, resume some version of their former lives, and restart
the economy all while balancing privacy and civil liberties
2) Ensuring government funding efficiently gets in the right hands and helps the economy weather the sudden
slowdown
3) Helping businesses gradually get up and running again, while mindful of the potential for periodic shutdowns
4) Ensuring sufficient and creative ways for people to get back to work (and/or receive support) that sustain long-term
economic growth
5) Managing government debt which unfortunately has risen in good times so that the financial overhang does not
overburden our future
USA Total Federal Debt as % of GDP = @ 107% & Rising (2019)
Source: St. Louis FRED, Office of Management & Budget.
Total Federal Debt % of US GDP
T o
ta l
F e
d e
ra l D
e b
t %
o f
U S
G D
P
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1940 1950 1960 1970 1979 1989 1999 2009 2019
WWII
USA Interest Rates = Near Historic Lows Total Federal Debt at Historic High
Source: St. Louis FRED, Office of Management & Budget.
Effective Federal Funds Rate (%) vs. Total Federal Debt ($B)
E ff
e c
ti v e
F e
d e
ra l F
u n
d s
R a te
( %
)
B lu
e L
in e
T o
ta l
F e
d e
ra l D
e b
t ($
B )
B
la c
k S
h a
d in
g
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
6
2) Viruses + Microbes = Consistent + Periodic Agents of Disaster
The battle of humans vs. infectious disease has been going on forever and humanitys ever-increasing proximity is the
primary facilitator. Viruses are commonplace, epic viruses are rare these are the big ones that changed the world
Sources: Visual Capitalist, CDC, History.com, TIME
Additional viruses over the last century have been material killers, all originating outside America: Asian Flu killed 1.1MM people in 1957-58 primarily in Asia; Hong Kong Flu killed 1MM in 1968-70 primarily in Asia; Swine Flu killed 200K in 2009-2010 globally, Ebola killed 11.3K in 2014-2016 in West Africa1 and SARS killed 8K people in 2003.
While other regions (primarily Asia) have experienced easily spread viruses with high mortality rates in recent history, Americas last pandemic experience (at scale) was the Spanish Flu one-hundred years ago. Unfortunately, 3-4 generations are long enough for many people to have forgotten the pain and to be ill-prepared for the next attack.
Our world had become increasingly porous, handing a coronavirus the perfect setup for global impact.
As digital connectivity, air travel, cross-border movement and trade have ramped steadily upward, our population has
become untethered physically, darting from place to place with limited geographic constraints. Furthermore, people
have migrated from rural, isolated regions to more densely populated, connected urban areas.
Pandemic Type # Deaths # Infected
Mortality
Rate Duration Years Origin
Region Most
Affected Stopping Mechanism
Bubonic Plague Bacterial 200MM ~333MM 60% 5 years 1347-51 China Europe Quarantine / Survivor Immunity
Small Pox Viral 56MM ~185MM 30% 431 years 1520-1951 Europe Global Vaccine
Spanish Flu Viral 40-50MM ~500MM 8% 2 years 1918-19 Unknown Global Quarantine / Survivor Immunity
Plague of Justinian Bacterial 30-50MM ~80MM 50% 2 years 541-542 Middle East Europe Survivor Immunity
HIV / AIDS Viral 25-35MM ~70MM 35% 39 years 1981 – Present Africa Global Testing / Antivirals
Third Plague Bacterial 12MM NA NA 1 year 1885 Asia Asia Quarantine / Survivor Immunity
Internet user data is as of mid-year. Source: United Nations / International Telecommunications Union, USA Census Bureau. Pew Research (USA), China Internet Network Information Center (China), Islamic Republic News Agency / InternetWorldStats / Bond estimates (Iran), Bond
estimates based on IAMAI data (India), & APJII (Indonesia).
Global Internet Users (2018) = 3.8B vs. <15MM Twenty-Five Years Ago 0% 10% 20% 0 2B 4B 1990 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Y /Y G ro w th ( R e d L in e ) In te rn e t U s e rs , G lo b a l (B lu e B a r) Internet Users vs. Y/Y Growth Global Air Travel (2018) = >4.2B Passengers, +7% Y/Y
Global Air Passengers (Millions)
G lo
b a l A
ir P
a s
s e n
g e rs
( m
il li o
n s )
Source: World Bank, CLEAR.
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
Oil Shock
Recession
Gulf War I
Recession
Asian Financial
Crisis
Dot Com
Bubble
WTC
Attacks
Global
Financial Crisis
1 CDC, Visual Capitalist and Encyclopedia Britannica.
7
All these trends set up a virus dream hitchhike on a human or surface, and travel hundreds of miles per hour across land and sea to get to a whole new world. When there, quietly multiply before anyone can contain you. The virus is clever, and it has evolved perfectly for the global environment through its long incubation time, asymptomatic transmission and symptoms so mild that most carriers just keep working and milling about.
Its impact on a human is a toxic cocktail of the unpredictable: from nothing…to sniffles to coughing to breathing difficulties to death.
The capriciousness sows fear, not just of the infected, but of every human interaction. It creates a feeling of being helpless in a war with an invisible enemy.
We are all focused on the duration and severity of our crisis and watching / waiting / praying for the ebb of coronavirus cases so we can begin to go out without fear of infection.
The good news is that social distancing appears to work and governments around the world have embraced it. In an unprecedented and rapid global response, 100% of the 20 largest economies are now in some form of lockdown, with 19 of those countries taking action within a 4-week window.
Global Cross-Border Air Travel (2018) = 1.4MM Arrivals, +6% Y/Y
International Flight Arrivals (Millions)
T o
ta l
In te
rn a
ti o
n a
l F
li g
h t
A rr
iv a
ls (
m il
li o
n s
)
Source: World Bank
500
1,000
1,500
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2018
Global Cross-Border Trade (2018) = $25T @ 29% of Global GDP
0%
20%
40%
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Trade as % of Global GDP
% o
f G
lo b
a l
G D
P
2018
Source: World Bank. Note: World Trade refers to the average of Imports & Exports (to account for goods in-transit between years) for all nations.
Global Relative GDP (Current $) = China + USA Rising Europe Falling (2018)
Global GDP Contribution (Current $)
Source: World Bank (GDP in current $). Other countries account for ~30% of global GDP.
0%
20%
40%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
% o
f G
lo b
a l G
D P
USA Europe China India Latin America
26%
22%
4%
16%
40%
24%
3%
7%
3%
6%
2018
Global Population (2018) = On-Going Migration to Urban Areas
Source: Qatalyst Partners (March 2020) & World Bank
China 59%
Europe 75%
USA 82%
World 55%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
USA China World Europe
U rb
a n
P o
p u
la ti
o n
( %
o f
T o
ta l
P o
p u
la ti
o n
)
Urban Population (% of Total Population)
2018
8
From the epidemiological data emerging from around the world, we now know more about this agent of disaster, much faster than ever before in pandemic history:
1) In the absence of intervention, Covid-19 infections will grow exponentially
Early consensus is that each person infected with Covid-19 will lead to 2 to 3 additional people becoming infected. In a world where the average person physically interacts with 10-15 others1 per day, there are hundreds of opportunities for transmission during the infectious stage of the disease. Empirically, that was proven in almost every country around the world, where a doubling time of every three days was observed in the weeks prior to social distancing. This doubling time is what produced the early warnings of hundreds of millions of infections.
2) Extreme social distance measures work…
After implementing control measures, countries consistently see an improvement to ~6 days of doubling time within two weeks, and ~11 days within three weeks. The earliest countries to enter lockdown have now hit their peak hospitalization and death rates, approximately four weeks after implementing strict social controls. As a result, worldwide new daily cases largely stabilized in April and the worlds case count doubling time of ~15 days suggests we may be near the peak of this outbreak.
3) We dont know what to expect in between…
We know the two extremes, but we dont know what will happen when we start to let down our guard. To do so, we need 100% available diagnostic testing with much faster turn-around (measured in minutes, not days). We need the systems and the tools to take action one step at a time, measure the impact, and iterate to find the most effective ways to contain Covid-19 until we have a vaccine.
Social Distancing = Rapidly Implemented by Worlds Largest 20 Economies
Source: Internal analysis as of 4/13/20, John Hopkins University, Worldometer
0
5
10
15
20
1/23 1/30 2/6 2/13 2/20 2/27 3/5 3/12 3/19 3/26
C o
u n
t o
f 2
0 L
a rg
e s
t E
c o
n o
m ie
s w
it h
S o
c ia
l D
is ta
n c
in g
Week (Starting 1/23, Week of China’s Lockdown)
The World’s 20 Largest Economies & Government-Mandated Social Distance
N = 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 5 15 20
1 Mixing patterns between age groups in social networks S.Y. Del Valle et al. / Social Networks 29 (2007) 539554.
9
The riddle for the whole world will be how to walk the fine line between relaxing the right measures at the right time in the right places, without fanning the flame of infection transmission and exponential case count growth. We believe that riddle is a problem that technology can help solve.
3) Creative Innovators (Globally + Together) Will Rise Above the Virus
Its easy to be fearful of how Covid-19 could continue to rage when one looks at the devastating outcomes from the epic plagues of past centuries.
The difference today, in a world with near 24×7 transparency, is that broad awareness of problems rises faster than ever, thanks to our real-time global connectedness. Scientists and experts begin discussion / debate; citizens, businesses, entrepreneurs and governments move with varying levels of urgency. Action and the quest for solutions to problems can also ramp at record speed.
The world has urgently moved on medical and public health initiatives to halt the spread of Covid-19:
Global Information Sharing ~3K published Covid-19 papers, which is 20x the published research of prior infectious diseases at this stage in the public health response
Rapid Mobilization of Clinical Research ~500 clinical trials for Covid-19 interventions underway or completed across 34 countries
Unprecedented Scale 5MM expected clinical trial participants
Impact of Social Distancing = Dramatic Reduction of Exponential Growth
Source: Internal analysis as of 4/13/20, John Hopkins University, Worldometer
3.14 3.74
5.82
10.60
T0 = Lockdown T + 7 Days After Lockdown T + 14 Days After Lockdown T + 21 Days After Lockdown
Average Doubling Times (Days) During Various Phases of Lockdown
T0 = Date Social Distancing is Implemented
N = 20 20 20 17
Daily New Cases = Largely Plateaued in April
Source: Internal analysis as of 4/13/20, John Hopkins University, Worldometer
(40%)
(20%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8
5 -D
a y T
ra il
in g
A v g
. D
a il
y G
ro w
th R
a te
D a il
y N
e w
C a s
e s
World Daily New Cases
Daily New Cases 5-Day Trailing Avg. Daily Growth Rate
Daily new case
growth slowing
Doubling Time = Dramatic Improvement In April
Source: Internal analysis as of 4/13/20, John Hopkins University, Worldometer
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1/22 1/29 2/5 2/12 2/19 2/26 3/4 3/11 3/18 3/25 4/1 4/8
3 -D
a y T
ra il
in g
D o
u b
li n
g T
im e
World Doubling Times Higher Numbers = Slower Spread
Just China… under
control
Exponential growth outside
of China as the virus spreads
to every country/community
Slowing growth as the
world retreats to social
distancing
10
In sports, we often talk about dream teams from different eras like the New York Yankees, UCLA Bruins (Wooden Basketball), Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, New England Patriots, Alabama Crimson Tide (Bryant & Saban Football) and Golden State Warriors their choreography, team play and wins have mesmerized.
Theres comfort that a global healthcare dream team of medical professionals is working in unprecedented ways around the clock, rapidly sharing and iterating information / best practices / feedback in real-time at scale in effect, organizing a lot of the worlds relevant information and making it accessible (and useful, one hopes) in record time.
This type of global collective technology-assisted rapid response to a health-related problem has never happened before, including collaboration and cooperation between the private sector and governments / regulators.
We will soon know if the fast-break attack of the virus can be countered by the global fast-break attack of the experts (and new thinkers) with their data, technology, machines and passion. We like the odds of the counterattack though the clock is ticking.
Published Covid-19 Research = Faster Scientific Response Than Any Time In History
Source: PubMed US National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health.
2,970
164 41
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
COVID-19 (2020 YTD) H1N1 (Apr 2009 – Jun 2009) SARS (Nov 2002 – Jan 2003)
# of Research Reports Published in First 3 Months of Outbreak
Covid-19 Clinical Trials = ~500 Trials Across 34 Countries
35
27
13
11 11 10
9
6
4 4 3
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Clinical Trials by Country, N=499
371
Countries With 1 Active Clinical Trial
South Korea, Taiwan, Norway, Jordan,
Thailand, USA, Hong Kong, India,
Australia, Vietnam, Brazil, French Guiana,
Pakistan, Egypt, Romania, Ireland
Source: Internal Analysis, clinicaltrials.gov, covid-evidence.org
Clinical Trials = 13MM Participants Primarily Drug / Traditional Medicine / Biologic Trials
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Number of Studies # of Participants
Breakdown by Intervention Type
Drug Traditional Medicine Biologic Diagnostic Other
N = 592 Studies N= 5MM Participants
Source: Internal Analysis, clinicaltrials.gov, covid-evidence.org
11
4) Rapid Changes Drive Growth in Both Directions
Many of our customary activities have suddenly slowed or come to complete halts. But the impact of Covid-19 has
also brought accelerating growth and focus in other areas. Most of these represent an acceleration of trends that have
been underway for years. Most have digital tie-ins.
Some trends we see happening now
Scientists / Engineers / Domain Experts Get Back More Seats at The Table
In our work at BOND, we focus on technology, innovation, and the powerful role of science / engineering / data in
forward progress. We believe the Covid-19 environment creates a moment for the technology sector and its
entrepreneurs to shine.
The sector has consistently driven growth and value creation in the American economy. When one looks at public
market capitalization as a measure of business momentum / success and reviews the top American-based market cap
growers of the past ten years, there are common threads:
1) Technology / innovation
2) Digital, often cloud-based, business operations
3) CEOs with engineering / computer science degrees
4) Founded over the past ~30 years
The list-toppers are Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet / Google and Facebook.
These successful companies are led by planners they have short and long-term (10-20+ year) visions and business
plans focused on data, execution, iteration, engineering and science.
Events of the past 3-4 months underscore the need for broad-scale data-driven forward planning / execution and the
need for modern technology. In both industry and government,
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