GEOL 1330 Name: kadra ismail
Global Warming

Lab #8 Due November 8

1. (70 points) Go to http://forecast.uchicago.edu/models.html, and click on “Run me” next to the “AR5 Maps”. “AR5” stands for the IPCC 5th Assessment Report.

Click on “About this page” and then “How To” in order to find out what units are used for temperature, precipitation, and snow cover, and what scenario (RCP) is used for the future prediction.

Temperature:

Precipitation:

Snow cover:

RCP:

What does RCP stand for? List the different RCPs explored in the IPCC, with their respective radiative forcings, and what they correspond to in terms of greenhouse gas concentrations. You find this information for example in the IPCC Summary for Policymakers (p. 27), which is available in your lab folder.

Now go back to the AR5 Climate Model Mapper and run the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) as follows:

Step 1. Select “Download Map” for the surface temperature for year 2000 with settings “Annual Mean”, “10 Years

Step 2. Select “Download Map” for the surface temperature for year 2100 with settings “Annual Mean”, “10 Years

Step 3. Select “Calculate Anomalies” which computes the difference between the map of years 2095-2105 (Step 2) and years 1995-2005 (Step 1). Hover with the mouse over the second map in order to view the anomalies, and click on “Undo Anomalies” if you would like to go back to the original maps.

Perform the same steps for precipitation and for snow cover.

Evaluate temperature and rainfall for the year 2000. Discuss the distribution (tropical versus polar, land versus ocean).

Analyze the future forecast for 2100 for both temperature and rainfall and discuss the changes using the absolute values as well as the anomalies.

Discuss projected changes in snow cover. What climate feedback plays an important role in those changes?

What is the projected temperature and rainfall change over North Central Texas?

2. (30 points) Now go to the Integrated Assessment Model (ISAM), located at http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/isam/. This model can be used to assess the climatic impact of various CO2 emission scenarios. The model will be run for two different emission scenarios, the “low business as usual” scenario and the “high business as usual” scenario.

Compare the low business as usual scenario to the high business as usual scenario in terms of CO2 emissions and resulting pCO2. Fill in total emissions (sum of land use and fossils fuels), atmospheric pCO2 and change in global temperature.

Climate Scenario

Total Emissions in Gton C/yr in 2100

Atmospheric pCO2 in 2100 (ppm)

Change in global surface temperature in 2100 (°C)

High Business as usual Scenario

Low Business as usual Scenario

Discuss how land use, industrial inputs of CO2, atmospheric pCO2 and global surface temperature change between the two scenarios.
According to the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, efforts shall be pursued to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Alter the fossil fuel emissions in order to limit the Earth’s temperature rise by 2100 to 1.5 °C. Put your new emission values in Gton C/yr in the table below.

Year

2015

2020

2025

2050

2075

2100

Fossil Fuel emissions (Gt C/yr)

9.94

Discuss how to achieve such emission goals despite the increasing global population.

Teamwork in the lab is encouraged. However, each student must provide his/her own answer. Copying of answers results in a grade of zero for all students involved.